I've got a funny feeling about South Africa
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the 'Boks
Thanks for subscribing to my Rugby World Cup Newsletter. This week’s edition won’t focus on the weekend as much as I’d planned thanks to my TV not being able to record the games while I was at a wedding because my TV provider accidentally cancelled my access to the channel showing the matches. Along with two very long work days on Sunday and Monday, I just haven’t had as much time to dive into things as I’d hoped. Anyway, let’s get started.
Who should be favourites for the Rugby World Cup?
It’s official: Wales are the best team in the world. Glad we could answer that question instead of doing that silly tournament thing they were planning to hold in Japan.
But if you’re still interested in seeing how it goes in Japan, I’ve got a funny feeling we might be about to watch South Africa lift the William Webb Ellis for the third time.
New Zealand are still obviously the favourites but the more I look into it, the more I feel like things are falling into place for the Springboks.
It’s not so long ago that South African rugby was in crisis with the national team frankly miserable to watch and the SARU forced to move two of its clubs from Super Rugby to the Pro14.
The turnaround has been incredible, with the ‘Boks winning this year’s Rugby Championship in style after hammering Australia with a second string team and showing incredible resilience (and defensive ingenuity) to earn a draw with the All Blacks in Wellington.
But more than just their form, I feel like the planets are aligning perfectly for South Africa with this year’s Rugby World Cup draw.
On the surface, being paired in a group with New Zealand seems like a nightmare. But it guarantees you won’t meet them again in either the quarter-finals or semi-finals. What’s more, the referee for the big game is none other than Jérôme Garcès - the only referee in the world who is actually allowed to show red cards to New Zealand players.
South Africa have won one, drawn one and lost one over their last three meetings with the All Blacks, with two of those games taking place in New Zealand. In fact, their only home game during that time was the one they lost.
But the part that is making me really think South Africa are destined to win in Japan is the fact they have the second kindest schedule in the whole tournament behind the hosts.
The Springboks only have to travel 716km during the pool stages and will get a break of at least 11 days between their final group game and the quarter-finals. In contrast, New Zealand will travel 2,246km in that same time and have four days’ fewer rest, while Australia are the biggest travellers among Tier 1 nations with the Wallabies set to clock up 2,888km on the road.
These margins matter hugely in a condensed tournament like a World Cup, especially in a game as physical as rugby and for a team as physical as South Africa.
So what is South Africa’s big weakness?
My biggest worry for South Africa lies in the halfbacks where there is a big question mark over whether or not the unrelated Jantjies twins can step up if needed. Rugby is a 23-man sport at this stage and the ‘Boks are weak at a key area of the game.
Herschel Jantjies was superb against Australia earlier in the summer but he has just three caps to his name and is still hugely inexperienced at test level. If the impossibly fun Faf de Klerk gets injured, it will be a huge ask for Herschel to not only step into the cauldron of the World Cup knockout stages but also to try and replicate the performances of arguably the best scrumhalf in the world right now.
Likewise, if Handré Pollard goes down, I think he will take South Africa’s World Cup chances with him.
While Herschel Jantjies could come in at scrumhalf and succeed with the reckless abandon of youth, I don’t expect Elton Jantjies to step up to the plate at 10 in a crucial situation.
Don’t get me wrong, Elton is a superb kicker of the ball both out of hand and off the tee - maybe one of the the best playing right now - and his passing is excellent when he has time. But it’s his decision-making which frustrates me so much.
At 29-years-old, Elton still plays like someone who has only recently converted to the outhalf position. If you can get in his face, he panics. If you sit back and challenge him to unlock your defence, he can be impatient and try to force the issue.
Elton has shown improvement during this year’s Rugby Championship but it’s not enough for me to trust him to even come off the bench to close out an important game.
Injuries happen at a World Cup and South Africa, like everyone else, will simply have to hope they can stay fit at key positions.
Ref Watch: Should George North’s try have been allowed?
My gut instinct here is that referee Pascal Gauzere made a mistake. But, as with so many things in rugby, you’ve got to applaud the players for going for it.
In case you missed it, George North touched down for the only try of Wales’ 13-6 win over England after Dan Biggar took a quick penalty following Anthony Watson’s yellow card for a deliberate knock on.
The controversy comes from the fact that not only was Watson still on the pitch when Biggar took the kick, but England had not yet been given the chance to bring on Ben Youngs as a replacement for Willi Heinz, who left the field for a HIA.
The rules are surprisingly light on the restart of play but, in my opinion, Gauzere should have allowed England the time to replace Heinz. I’m not too concerned about Watson still being on the pitch as 1) he didn’t interfere with play and 2) even if he did, that would only be an advantage to England.
But with Heinz going off for a HIA while the play is dead, Gauzere should not have signalled to restart the clock until his replacement had been introduced. Once he did, Wales were well within their rights to take a quick penalty and they caught England napping.
Meanwhile, in Tier 2…
I am still planning to do more of a dive into some Tier 2 teams ahead of the World Cup with Japan first on my list but I was struck by this renewed push from Pacific Rugby Players Welfare chief Dan Leo to open up rugby’s eligibility rules.
In short, Leo’s argument is that players should be allowed to switch allegiances and represent a second country so long as they are eligible to do so and a certain amount of time has passed since their last international cap - three years is usually the suggested timeframe.
On the surface, it seems like a simple, inexpensive way to boost the Pacific Island nations who so often see their best players poached by Tier 1 teams. Even just this weekend the Fijian-born Alivereti Raka won his first French cap.
But you immediately run into difficulties once you scratch beneath the surface. If the rule applied equally to all teams, this would only open up more of an opportunity for Tier 1 sides to poach the best Tier 2 talent.
The likes of Leone Nakarawa, Mamuka Gorgodze and Nemani Nadolo could all have simply switched allegiances after establishing themselves in the international game. This would only make the net wider for those so-called project players as everyone would now be on the table.
The obvious counter to this is to only extend the new rule to players switching from Tier 1 to Tier 2 or below. But that is messy as well. Fiji and Japan are both considered Tier 2 nations but are currently ranked higher than Argentina and Italy, with Georgia also ahead of the Italians.
There are serious issues with the way in which Tier 2 teams are treated but the proposal is a short-term solution that does nothing to address the fundamental inequalities of international rugby.
Japan have shown over the last decade what strong investment in a union and domestic league can do. Heading into the 2007 World Cup they were ranked 18th in the world. Now they are set to host their own World Cup as a top ten team - though, admittedly, much of that growth has come from poaching foreign talent.
The focus should be on keeping these players with their home countries in the first place and that requires serious amounts of investment and creativity from World Rugby. If they are to adopt a form of this rule it must be done in conjunction with additional support to prevent these issues arising in the first place.
Did Rob Kearney pass the ball this week?
Anyone who has watched a Leinster or Ireland match with me knows of my frustration with Rob Kearney’s refusal to pass to his teammates, so each week I will be asking the question: did Rob Kearney pass the ball?
This week’s answer: No, but in fairness to him Ireland didn’t play this weekend.
If you see a Rob Kearney pass the ball in the wild, please contact the relative authorities (me) immediately.
Some extra stuff you might like
Pacific Rugby Players Welfare boss Dan Leo calls for eligibility rule change.
Murray Kinsella of The 42 has done an excellent breakdown of some key Irish set pieces under Joe Schmidt as part of their Team That Joe Built series.
I don’t have much to say about this Sbu Nkosi try other than you should watch it immediately.
If you fancy learning more about Georgian rugby, this is an interesting watch.
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