So how can Ireland beat New Zealand?
We’re down to just eight teams and eight games (seven, really, because screw the bronze final) left in the Rugby World Cup and things are set up nicely. As far the draw has gone, I’m not sure the neutral could have asked for anything better.
Japan vs South Africa has the potential to be one of the all-time great RWC games as the top two teams for metres made during the pool stages face off but my interest is, somewhat understandably, with the other game between Pool A and Pool B alumni.
Last year many were predicting it would be the final of the tournament but Ireland’s slip up in Fukuroi means they have to beat New Zealand if they are to break their quarter-final curse.
While the game is great for all the incredibly creative people who want to tell their totally original Haka/Riverdance joke, it’s not so great for Ireland as they have to face the best team in the world.
But hey, they’ve won two of their last three games against the All Blacks and anything can happen in the knockout stages of a Rugby World Cup.
Right?
Ireland’s power plays
I’ve said previously that I believe Ireland’s entire structure under Joe Schmidt has been built with the intent of beating New Zealand. While it’s all well and good picking up wins against England or Wales in a Six Nations, Schmidt has always had his eyes on the William Webb Ellis trophy and to win that you’re probably going to have to beat the All Blacks.
It’s no secret by now that Ireland play a slow, methodical game which breaks their opponent down — a direct contrast to New Zealand’s infamous swashbuckling style. This is intentional, as Schmidt wants Ireland to control the game and play it on their own terms.
Contrary to what you may believe, New Zealand’s defence is one of the meanest in the game, with the All Blacks conceding just 11 tries from their last 10 tests — six of which came in their record defeat to Australia during the Rugby Championship.
If Ireland are going to win, it will probably be low-scoring.
One of the key features of the Irish attack is their tendency to play everything within the two 15m lines, moving the ball back and forth until a hole opens up in the defence and only going wide when the opportunity calls for it.
The obvious benefit to this is the toll it takes on defenders, with gaps opening up as teams get more and more tired. But it’s not just about attrition. This style of play also opens up Ireland’s bag of power plays as it gives them the opportunity to identify the hinge in the opposition defence.
Simply put, as a team moves the ball across the field, there comes a point where your blindside becomes your openside and vice versa. The hinge is the point at which the defence folds back onto itself and the fullback has to make a decision about where to go. This happens in the space of about a second or two but it can be enough.
Jacob Stockdale’s try against New Zealand last November is a great example of attacking this hinge. With Ireland set for a lineout on the attacking 10m line, the All Blacks line up with fullback Damian McKenzie covering the left side of the field and wing Ben Smith covering the right.
Ireland move the ball towards the middle of the pitch as they have done all game, before cutting it back across to Stockdale to exploit the weakness in New Zealand’s defensive transition.
Smith is cheating across to cover the space in the middle of the field before Aki cuts it back to Stockdale. This leaves Smith with a decision to make and he rushes up to cut out the passing lane to Rory Best.
Stockdale simply chips it in behind Smith and McKenzie — who takes too long to recognise the danger — can’t get across in time to stop the Ulsterman scoring.
The irony here is that if Ben Smith were playing fullback instead of wing, I’m not sure this would have been a try and I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see Smith brought back in at 15 with Beauden Barrett shifting back to 10 for this game.
If they stick with Richie Mo’unga at 10, then Ireland will try to exploit Barrett’s relative inexperience at fullback in big games.
We’ve yet to really see Ireland break out these power plays at this year’s World Cup, with Andrew Conway’s try against Scotland the only example that really springs to mind.
I’d be amazed if Joe Schmidt let his team go a whole tournament without busting out at least one of these moves. Say what you like about him, but Schmidt is not a man who can ever be accused of not preparing for games.
Similarly, Ireland’s back and forth play can exploit New Zealand’s laziness at ruck time. In their defensive system, the scrumhalf drops back behind the immediate line to act as a sweeper, which means the middle of the ruck can be left unguarded if just one person switches off.
You can see what I’m talking about here, as Pieter-Steph du Toit simply runs through the heart of the New Zealand defence untouched to score a try in the pool stages.
If New Zealand under-commit to the rucks, Irish ball-carriers like Tadhg Furlong and CJ Stander need to be clever enough to take advantage.
Sean Cronin has made these moves his speciality over the last few years but he won’t be playing at the weekend after being sent back to Ireland with an injury.
New Zealand: The land of a thousand playmakers
One of the keys to New Zealand’s attacking structure is the double playmaker concept — which is why they will probably stick with the Mo’unga/Barrett combo at 10 and 15 despite Smith’s superior defensive abilities.
Even playing at fullback, Barrett is still arguably the main creator in New Zealand’s backline as he steps up as a first and deep second receiver on a regular basis.
The pair are both starred in the image below, with Barrett lying deeper and directing the play from second receiver.
From here, Mo’unga spreads it to Barrett, who sets in motion a move which ends with a New Zealand try in the left corner on the same phase.
But if Ireland’s attack has been built to keep possession away from the All Blacks and exploit their transitional weaknesses, the Irish blitz defence has been created to shut down the Kiwis’ multiple playmakers.
New Zealand have not won any of their last three games against teams with Andy Farrell as their defensive coach, being held tryless twice in the process, but Ireland will need to keep their discipline in defence — as well as get lucky at the right times — in order to win on Saturday.
The All Blacks have already been building to combat the blitz defences which have stifled them so much since the last World Cup, altering their attacking platform and moving Barrett from 10 to 15 to give him more space to create.
If you want to read more about that, I highly recommend EK Rugby Analysis’ breakdown of the new hybrid attacking system New Zealand have implemented over the last 12 months. Honestly, I’m not sure what more I could say on the structure than that.
Beating the blitz
In terms of how this fits into Ireland, Farrell has employed a risky but effective 14-1 defensive structure against New Zealand in the past, which basically means there are 14 men in the Irish defensive line with just one man deep, whereas most teams have a 13-2 split and New Zealand themselves often have a 12-3 divide in order to allow them to counter-attack from deep.
This allows Ireland to smother opposing attacks, as they shoot up quickly in the 10 and 12 channels and remain relatively passive out wide in order to buy time for more defensive support and avoid being caught out by offloads.
The easiest way to counter a blitz defence is to kick in behind them — something teams have been happy to do at this World Cup. The All Blacks aren’t afraid to kick past the blitz, even if it means kicking sideways.
This is why Rob Kearney is so important for Ireland. He reads the game brilliantly and covers the deep space like no one else can.
Kearney’s role is one of those where if he’s doing his job right, you shouldn’t notice him doing anything at all. If you want to look at how difficult it is to play 15 in this system, go back and watch Robbie Henshaw get thrown to the wolves against England.
At the breakdown, I don’t expect Ireland to contest too many defensive rucks, taking a more Japanese approach of focusing on getting men in the defensive line and only trying for a turnover when there’s a clear chance for one.
Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony, Rory Best and potentially Tadhg Beirne will have to choose their jackalling attempts wisely or risk giving New Zealand a numbers advantage on the outside.
Whether or not they can slow things down in the ruck will largely depend on how referee Nigel Owens feels on the day.
Ref Watch: The quarter-finalists
The referees for this week’s quarter-finals are: Nigel Owens (New Zealand vs Ireland), Wayne Barnes (Japan vs South Africa), Jérôme Garcès (England vs Australia) and Jaco Peyper (Wales vs France).
I can’t say I’m all that surprised, to be honest. I think World Rugby had pretty much made up their minds about who would be in charge of the knockout games and it would have taken a miracle for Barnes or Owens to not get picked.
The one I’m most curious about is Peyper, who only took charge of two games in the pool stages and is the only one of the four who didn’t referee a quarter-final at the 2015 tournament.
Maybe including him in the quarter-final line up is to make up for having the England vs France game cancelled, while I’m sure there are plenty of conspiracy theorists out there claiming it’s a reward for pinging Samoa for a crooked feed on their last-minute scrum against Japan. Or maybe World Rugby just think he’s good at his job.
For what it’s worth, I thought Luke Pearce had a really good pool stages but I can see why World Rugby didn’t want to pick more than one referee from the same nation.
If not Pearce, then I would have liked to see Nic Berry get the nod ahead of Peyper. Perhaps it was deemed inappropriate to have an Australian take charge of a game to decide who the Wallabies will play in the semi-finals if they can beat England, though that didn’t stop Garcès from getting the other quarter-final on France’s side of the draw.
Meanwhile, in Tier 2…
This will probably be the last Tier 2 update of the newsletter, with only Japan remaining in the tournament. It’s been great fun watching all of the smaller teams at this year’s tournament, with some great performances along the way.
In particular, Uruguay were a joy to watch — even without the nicest man in rugby, Mario Sagario.
I can’t help but feel bad for Namibia, who missed out on the best chance they have ever had for a Rugby World Cup victory after their game against Canada was cancelled. While bigger cancellations took the headlines, Namibia vs Canada is the kind of game we don’t often get to see so it was disappointing for it to be called off.
Anyway, there has been a marked improvement from the Tier 2 sides this year when they go up against the big ten, with more than half the teams improving their points difference compared to 2015.
Japan (+53) and Fiji (+2) became just the third and fourth Tier 2 sides since 2003 (when the current RWC format of four pools of five teams was adopted) to post a positive overall points difference in their pool.
The other two? No it’s not Japan in 2015 (-2) or even Fiji in 2007 (-22), it was Samoa both times! Though they didn’t get out of their pool on either occasion, the Samoans boasted positive points differences in 2003 (+21) and 2011 (+42) — as well as in 1991, 1995 and 1999 under the old formats.
I had planned before the tournament to do a Tier 2 team of the pool stages but I’ve taken the decision to not pick any Japanese players, which explains the absences of Kotaro Matsushima, Timothy Lafaele, Yu Tamura, Shota Horie, James Moore, Lappies Labuschagne and Kazuki Himeno who would all probably be in there otherwise.
As it turns out, the team is made up of four Fijians, four Uruguayans, three Tongans, two Samoans, a Russian and Georgian. I cheated a little by putting Malietoa Hingano in at 12 but I really wanted to pick him and Waisea Nayacalevu.
15. Telusa Veainu (Tonga), 14. Josua Tuisova (Fiji), 13. Waisea Nayacalevu (Fiji), 12. Malietoa Hingano (Tonga), 11. Semi Radradra (Fiji), 10. Felipe Berchesi (Uruguay), 9. Santiago Arata (Uruguay); 1. Siegfried Fisi'ihoi (Tonga), 2. Germán Kessler (Uruguay), 3. Michael Alaalatoa (Samoa), 4. Leone Nakarawa (Fiji), 5. Chris Vui (Samoa), 6. Juan Gaminara (Uruguay), 7. Tagir Gadzhiev (Russia), 8. Beka Gorgadze (Georgia)
Did Rob Kearney pass the ball this week?
Anyone who has watched a Leinster or Ireland match with me knows of my frustration with Rob Kearney’s refusal to pass to his teammates, so each week I will be asking the question: did Rob Kearney pass the ball?
This week’s answer: Dear ol’ Bobby didn’t play against Samoa so he didn’t get the chance to run directly into any contact without passing.
If you see a Rob Kearney pass the ball in the wild, please contact the relative authorities (me) immediately.
Ticket fairy
I know this is a long shot as every man and his dog has put a call out for this but if anyone knows of any tickets going for Ireland vs New Zealand, please let me know.
My brother Rob is out in Japan and looking for tickets after banking on Ireland topping Pool A, which means he’s stuck with tickets for South Africa vs Japan instead of Ireland’s game.
If you hear of anything, please drop me an email or send Rob a message on Twitter.
Some extra stuff
Maurice Brosnan of Balls.ie has broken down the lessons Ireland can learn from Japan’s incredible attacking structure.
Charlie Morgan has taken a look at each of Japan’s four tries against Scotland for The Telegraph.
I recommended it above but in case you missed it, EK Rugby Analysis has a great explainer of New Zealand’s hybrid 2-3-2-1/2-2-3-1 attacking structure.
This is a great read on the opportunity cost of starting two opensides instead of a traditional blindside flanker by Rhiannon Garth Jones on Rugby Pass.
Japan’s offloads are a thing of beauty
Thanks for reading this week’s Rugby World Cup Newsletter. If you liked it, share it with your friends and help it grow! You can get in touch by following me on Twitter.