So what's happened to the All Blacks?
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Who’s on first?
The world rankings are an imperfect system. They regularly underestimate Argentina and, to a lesser degree, Italy as they fail to account for the tiered system of international rugby union. But they are a little more accurate at the top.
New Zealand have been number one in the rankings since November 16, 2009 but barring a series of unlikely draws, they will be knocked off top spot at some point this month by one of Wales, Ireland or England.
After effectively a decade at the top, New Zealand will finally be overtaken during the only fixtures in rugby’s four-year cycle that don’t actually mean anything. Of course, they will return to the summit of the rankings once more if the home teams win out in each of the remaining Ireland/Wales/England meetings.
Though the world rankings might not be a totally accurate predictor of future result, their utility lies in the past and identifying trends in the sport.
This time last year, it looked as if New Zealand were on the march to their third straight world title. But 12 months on, it’s anyone’s guess who will lift the William Webb Ellis trophy in Japan. And that has been reflected in the rankings.
This day last year, New Zealand had a lead of 3.87 ranking points over their nearest competitor. Now, there are four teams within 2.21 points of the world champions, with Wales and Ireland both just one win away from overtaking them.
So what is going on with New Zealand?
New Zealand’s fall from unstoppable rugby gods to simply a very good team has seen them win just two of their last five meetings with teams ranked in the top ten, with a points difference of -23 in those matches and an average score of just 17.4 a game.
It’s their worst run of form since losing three times in four games (and four in seven) back in 2009 and has everyone in the rugby world questioning New Zealand for the first time in the 2010s. So what’s happened?
The most obvious change this year has been Beauden Barrett’s switch from outhalf to fullback in order to accommodate Crusaders playmaker Richie Mo’unga. Things just haven’t looked right with Mo’unga pulling the strings and New Zealand have looked most dangerous when Barrett has stepped up into the line as first receiver.
The All Blacks are badly missing Damian McKenzie, who has been ruled out of the World Cup after tearing his ACL in April. The three-time Super Rugby player of the year effectively served as a second outhalf while on the pitch, giving New Zealand multiple points of attack.
While Mo’unga is clearly a talented player - he is, after all, first choice 10 for the all-conquering Crusaders - he is not quite up to the speed of test rugby yet and probably won’t be in time for the World Cup.
But that doesn’t fully explain New Zealand’s problems either, as Barrett and McKenzie were the starting 10-15 axis in both the defeat to Ireland and the if-only-Courtney-Lawes-had-smaller-feet win over England last November.
In short, teams have figured out how to stop New Zealand from getting into dangerous positions while also breaching the Kiwis’ line more often.
One of the main factors in this shift is teams are blitzing New Zealand more, forcing New Zealand to start each phase from deeper than they usually would and giving key playmakers less time to make decisions.
The most aggressive of these defensive lines was run by South Africa during last month’s 16-16 draw, as they rushed not only up but also in on New Zealand, closing off their ability to spread the play out wide.
Where normally the blitzer in a defensive line is the outside centre, South Africa had Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi shoot out from their respective wings in order to cut off the passing lanes outside and force the All Blacks to cut back in where the Springboks had greater numbers to defend.
It’s a risky strategy and New Zealand’s only try from that match came when Mapimpi shot up at the wrong time, giving Sonny Bill Williams time to find Barrett in space on the outside. But it’s something we are likely to see again from the ‘Boks in Japan.
Ref Watch: Was Scott Barrett’s tackle a red card?
Yes. The laws are clear on this, not matter what various commentators (or even Eddie Jones) say. If you make contact with the head or neck area with a shoulder charge, you’re off.
World Rugby have broken down the guidelines for such incidents on their website and on their YouTube channel if you want to brush up ahead of the World Cup. Because if there’s one type of person people love watching rugby with, it’s the guy who goes into way too much detail about every single rule.
And in case you were wondering, Barrett’s three-week ban will keep him out of just one game for New Zealand. Presumably they convinced officials to include Taranaki’s Mitre 10 Cup games as part of his ban despite the fact he was never going to play in them anyway.
Meanwhile, in Tier 2…
I’ll try to keep on top of things in the word of Tier 2 rugby and let you know who to look out for during the World Cup. If you’re on Twitter, I highly recommend following the aptly named Tier 2 Rugby.
This weekend sees Russia take on Italy in a World Cup warm up game, which will be the first time a Tier 1 nation have ever played the Russians voluntarily. All their previous meetings with the top sides have come either in the World Cup or in World Cup qualifying.
Elsewhere, Japan were crowned Pacific Nations Cup champions and are playing some very exciting rugby at the moment.
Did Rob Kearney pass the ball this week?
Anyone who has watched a Leinster or Ireland match with me knows of my frustration with Rob Kearney’s refusal to pass to his teammates, so each week I will be asking the question: did Rob Kearney pass the ball?
This week’s answer: No, he wasn’t playing. But Dave did.
Some extra stuff you might like
Check out Squidge Rugby’s YouTube channel for some of the funniest and most informative rugby analysis out there. He’s currently doing a series previewing every team in this year’s World Cup.
The ever-great Murray Kinsella did a fascinating breakdown of Ireland’s tactical kicking game against Italy for The 42, if you’re into that kind of thing.
This one is from a few weeks ago but it’s still relevant. Ben Smith (no, not that one) took a look at New Zealand’s attempts to combat the rush defence for Rugby Pass.
Another older one but it’s timeless: The 1014 explain what the 1-3-3-1 formation is.
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