There's no turning back now
We did it. We’re finally here. After four years of hype, the Rugby World Cup kicks off in less than 48 hours and what an opening round of fixtures we have been blessed with.
Understandably most of the focus has been on New Zealand’s showdown with South Africa but there are plenty of tasty match ups in the opening set of fixtures.
In particular, the opening Saturday of the tournament is a beaut with Australia taking on Fiji in the early game (KO: 5.45am BST) before France face Argentina (KO: 8.15am BST), with the southern hemisphere showdown the “late” game at 10.45am BST.
Ireland take on Scotland in a game that will likely decide Pool A on Sunday at 8.45am BST while the Monday game between Wales and Georgia (KO: 11.15am BST) could be very interesting as well.
In all, there are 10 games between now and next week’s newsletter and I fully intend to watch them all.
Once we have some actual games under our belts, I’ll be able to dive into things a little bit more. Until then, it’s all just speculation…
Mindless speculation
I expect Ireland to top Pool A with Scotland in second, New Zealand to top Pool B ahead of South Africa and Wales to come out on top over Australia in Pool D.
Pool C is the only one where I’m finding it difficult to make up my mind. I fully expect England to come out on top but who comes second between Argentina and France is more of a coin flip than anything.
Both sides have been flaky since the last World Cup but showed flashes of what they can do in recent months. I’m going to give the edge to France just because they looked more dangerous in the warm ups and Damian Penaud looks set for a huge tournament.
That would leave us with this…
I actually think resurgent French side is a bad match up for Wales in a quarter-final but the fact France finish up the pool stages against England, whereas Warren Gatland’s men will be well-rested after facing Uruguay, means I’d give the edge to Wales in that game.
Similarly, I think Australia could do a number on a tired England team who finish up their pool with two intense games against Argentina and France. I’ll still back England - but only just. A lot will depend on the injuries both sides pick up along the way. And if the Wallabies do pip Wales to top spot in Pool D then I’d expect the Six Nations champions to beat England in the last eight.
On the other side of the draw, New Zealand should make light work of Scotland while I’m backing South Africa to slug it out against Ireland, as much as it pains me to say it.
In the semi-finals, a relatively fresh New Zealand team would expect to beat a battered England side while I think South Africa would just have too much for a Wales team lacking the creative spark of Gareth Anscombe.
That would make the final the fourth time a fixture has repeated in a Rugby World Cup, with the winner of the first fixture emerging victorious the second game each time. And I’d expect the same here, with New Zealand beating South Africa to retain the William Webb Ellis Cup.
But if the Springboks can pull off a win on Saturday, everything changes and it would be the ‘Boks who have the easier path to glory.
Team of the tournament
As far as pointless exercises go, I can’t think of anything more pointless (less pointful?) than trying to predict the eventual team of the tournament. So obviously that’s what I’ve done.
15. Beauden Barrett (New Zealand), 14. Cheslin Kolbe (South Africa), 13. Anton Lienert-Brown (New Zealand), 12. Samu Kerevi (Australia), 11. Jonny May (England), 10. Owen Farrell (England), 9. Faf de Klerk (South Africa); 1. Joe Moody (New Zealand), 2. Jamie George (England), 3. Kyle Sinckler (England), 4. James Ryan (Ireland), 5. Alun Wyn Jones (Wales), 6. Michael Leitch (Japan), 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (South Africa), 8. Kieran Read (New Zealand).
Some big names haven’t made the cut. This tournament is absolutely stacked at second row, even with Brodie Retallick set to miss the opening rounds. Likewise, Mako Vunipola’s injury keeps him out of the team, even though the selections will likely be weighted more heavily towards what players do in the knockout stages.
The midfield was a difficult one to pick - mainly because New Zealand have four world-class centres in their squad and I honestly have no idea who will be their first-choice combo, while there are roughly a thousand players who could make the cut in the back row or on the wings.
Sevu Reece and Billy Vunipola could well have great tournaments but their off-the-field issues mean I am not comfortable selecting them in my team.
In case you were wondering, here is what the official team of the tournament looked like four years ago.
Meanwhile, in Tier 2…
For the first time ever, the Rugby World Cup will be hosted by a Tier 2 nation. I’m really looking forward to Friday’s opening game between two Tier 2 sides, even if Japan should beat Russia pretty handily.
Canada and Namibia may be ranked lower (and both are in for serious hidings against New Zealand and South Africa) but I think Russia - who were comfortably beaten at home by Connacht and English Championship side Jersey Reds in the warm ups - are the worst team at the tournament.
As for Japan, they have probably the best chance of making the knockout stages of any Tier 2 side, with home advantage a huge plus against a Scotland team who are notoriously bad travellers, having lost away to the USA last year.
Unsurprisingly, the hosts have named a strong side for curtain-raiser. I’m particularly excited to see how the halfback partnership of Yutaka Nagare and Yu Tamura gets on as well as the powerful Japanese back row.
Elsewhere, Fiji are probably the only other Tier 2 side with any hope of a quarter-final berth but it’s a long shot, with the Pacific Islanders drawn into a pool alongside Wales and Australia for the third time in the last four World Cups - with Fiji and Wales drawn into the same pool for the fourth tournament in a row.
In fact, with Uruguay also in the group, the only difference between Pool D at this World Cup and 2015’s Pool A is the inclusion of Georgia instead of England.
If Fiji are to reach the quarter-finals for the third time, they’re going to have to get something against Australia on Saturday as I can’t see them getting a whole lot of joy against the hyper-organised Welsh defence.
Did Rob Kearney pass the ball this week?
Anyone who has watched a Leinster or Ireland match with me knows of my frustration with Rob Kearney’s refusal to pass to his teammates, so each week I will be asking the question: did Rob Kearney pass the ball?
This week’s answer: No, Ireland didn’t play but Kearney did manage to pull something in his calf and potentially rule himself out of Sunday’s opener against Scotland.
If you see a Rob Kearney pass the ball in the wild, please contact the relative authorities (me) immediately.
Just a note
I just wanted to share my support for a personal hero of mine, Gareth Thomas. The former Welsh captain revealed his positive HIV diagnosis this week after pressure from an unnamed tabloid which was preparing to out him.
Contrary to what meany people still believe, HIV is no longer the death sentence it once was and those who receive the proper treatment cannot pass the virus on.
Thomas has been a trailblazer for LGBT athletes and sports fans around the world but particularly in rugby and for that I’ll always be grateful.
I have nothing but contempt for those who tried to publicly shame him over this and the “journalists” who attempted to out him.
Some extra stuff
Safe travels to everyone heading to Japan for the tournament - including my brother Rob. I am definitely not massively jealous and do not resent you all.
The official Rugby World Cup app is actually surprisingly useful, even if just to have somewhere to easily access all the fixtures in your local time.
Murray Kinsella of The42 has broken down the depth of Ireland’s World Cup squad compared to 2015.
A fascinating look at how South Africa kicked their way to six tries against Japan by EK Rugby Analysis.
This one is a bit dense but definitely interesting if you’re so inclined - OptaPro have developed “a success probability model to rate rugby’s leading goal-kickers worldwide”. Basically they’ve developed a model to determine who are the best goal-kickers in rugby right now. Spoiler alert: the best kicker in the world isn’t going to the World Cup.
Fiji Drua are a delight to watch. Just check out this cheeky kick-pass in their own 22 to set up a try.
This video of the Sapporo Dome being converted from a baseball stadium into a rugby venue is pretty cool.
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