We need to talk about Devin
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Was dropping Toner the right call?
Easily the biggest surprise of Ireland’s Rugby World Cup squad has been the omission of Devin Toner, with Joe Schmidt option for the second row quartet of James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne and Jean Kleyn.
To start, I’ve absolutely no interest in any discussions around Kleyn’s nationality. He’s qualified for Ireland and should be considered for selection and, having lived and worked here for the past three years, had stronger ties to the country on his debut than someone shipped in from abroad because of their Irish granny.
I don’t care if you’re the vice-chairman of World Rugby, it’s pointless argument.
Sure, I feel bad for Toner missing out while someone with only two caps gets in but it’s worth exploring why Schmidt made the decision to leave the Leinster lock at home.
At 33, time is catching up with Toner and injuries have certainly taken their toll in 2019. His whole game seems to be a step slower than it was 12 months ago - an unfortunate inevitability of time.
Dev has been nearly ever-present in Schmidt’s Ireland teams. He has the fourth most Irish starts since the last World Cup, with Jack McGrath the only other fit and available player to hit double digits over that time and not make the cut.
So what has changed over the last year? Well, the answer isn’t really that straight forward. A lot has changed but much is still the same. According to Matt Williams, there has been a push from the coaching staff to phase Toner out since January, but it might have started even earlier.
He was benched in favour of Henderson in both away games of last year’s Grand Slam campaign and made way for the Ulsterman in the 13-9 win over England two years ago. It’s likely Henderson would have got the nod against England again this year if not for injury, as Schmidt prefers the 27-year-old’s athleticism when facing the likes of Maro Itoje.
I’ve always seen Toner as more of a tight forward than a loose one in open play, focusing more on hitting rucks and tackling in tight spaces, but he has mainly locked down as the loosehead scrummager over the last few years. And the emergence of Ryan last year coupled with the additions of Beirne and Kleyn this year has seen the complexion of the Irish second row options change completely.
In Ryan, Ireland have Paul O’Connell-type tighthead lock who can be a dynamic playmaker up and down the field. In Kleyn, Schmidt finally has the pure tighthead grunt worker he has always wanted. And in Beirne, Ireland have an Itoje-type poacher who offers more as a loosehead than Toner can.
While much of the focus has been on Kleyn replacing Toner you could - and many have - argue that it is Beirne who has ousted the big man from the squad as Ryan and Kleyn locked down the tighthead lock positions, with Henderson and Beirne ahead of Toner at loosehead.
The main argument in favour of Toner is his experience in the lineout but no amount of proficiency in the set piece can make up for the drop off in the other parts of his game. Against Italy, Toner managed just six tackles and five carries while Kleyn notched up nine carries and 16 tackles.
In the Six Nations against England, Toner had a slightly better rate of nine tackles but only four carries to Ryan’s 16 carries and 11 tackles while in this year’s Champions Cup final against Saracens, Toner made just nine of Leinster’s 191 tackles and carried the ball seven times - the second lowest among the starting XV.
Those stats are an imperfect measurement of what a second row does - especially someone like Toner who has never been a big ball carrier - but looking back at the Italy game last month, he wasn’t exactly dominating things at the breakdown.
Kleyn looked far hungrier for those moments, with Toner not really smashing anyone in the ruck, the tackle or with ball in hand. There’s no room for passengers at a World Cup and Toner’s engine isn’t what it used to be.
Schmidt has often been criticised for not taking enough risks but dropping Toner is a huge call. My initial reaction was to disagree with it but the more I look into it, the more I start to think it might be the right decision.
In any case, there’s a high likelihood that Toner will be heading to Japan, with injuries at a World Cup more common than anyone would like.
Alternative Rugby World Cup squad
While we’re at it, here is a 31-man squad of players who are available for selection for their national team but have not been called up for the World Cup.
I have left out players who were not selected because of injury ( e.g. Damian McKenzie) or potential bans (e.g. Aphiwe Dyantyi) as well as those ineligible for selection according to their country’s policies on picking players based overseas (e.g. Donnacha Ryan).
Props (6): Uini Atonio (France), Rob Evans (Wales), Owen Franks (New Zealand), Samson Lee (Wales), Jack McGrath (Ireland), Ben Moon (England)
Hookers (2): Dylan Hartley (England), Tatafu Polota-Nau (Australia)
Second Rows (4): Rynhardt Elstadt (South Africa), Félix Lambey (France), Romain Taofifenua (France), Devin Toner (Ireland)
Back Rows (5): François Cros (France), Facundo Isa (Argentina), Jordi Murphy (Ireland), Chris Robshaw (England), Thomas Young (Wales)
Scrumhalves (3): Kieran Marmion (Ireland), Morgan Parra (France), Nick Phipps (Australia)
Outhalves (2): Ross Byrne (Ireland), Danny Cipriani (England)
Centres (4): Mathieu Bastareaud (France), Ngani Laumape (New Zealand), Huw Jones (Scotland), Ben Te’o (England)
Outside Backs (5): Tom Banks (Australia), Mike Brown (England), Santiago Cordero (Argentina), Teddy Thomas (France), Waisake Naholo (New Zealand)
I reckon they could cause some trouble, depending on the pool.
Ref Watch: Should Toner have been cited?
Since we’re talking about Big Dev, it seems only fair that this week’s ref watch would focus on his shoulder charge on Rob Evans in the 75th minute of Saturday’s win over Wales.
For me, it’s clear as day and should have been a red card. I can understand it being missed during the game but I’ve no idea how he wasn’t cited.
Had Toner been cited, a three-week ban (a mid-range foul with an entry point of six weeks, with the usual time cut in half for good behaviour) seemed likely, which would have ruled him out of Ireland’s games against Japan and Scotland.
Those games are more than three weeks away but the use of “weeks” in bans is a little misleading as the bans are actually about the amount of games a player must miss.
So what’s interesting to me is what would have happened if Toner, having been left out of Ireland’s Rugby World Cup squad, had been cited. Would the Scotland and Japan games count towards his ban even though he is not eligible to play in them?
Would he have to wait until Leinster’s second game of the season for the ban to be up? If he was called into Ireland’s squad as injury cover after the first game, would he have to sit out the match against Russia in order to fulfil the ban?
It highlights yet another issue in World Rugby’s often inconsistent punishment system. Not that it matters much anyway, as Toner somehow got away with it.
Meanwhile, in Tier 2…
Georgia’s first ever home test against a Tier 1 nation didn’t exactly go to plan, with Scotland dismantling the eastern Europeans with relative ease. It’s worth remembering though that Georgia played the game on a short week after beating the Southern Kings 24-20 on Tuesday.
I don’t think The Lelos will cause Australia or Wales too many problems in Pool D but they have got a boost with the return of Mamuka Gorgodze after retiring from international rugby in 2017.
It’s not clear whether or not he’ll feature in the re-match with Scotland at the weekend but it’ll be fun to watch Georgia’s record try scorer - who has made the switch from flanker to second row - play in his fourth World Cup.
Meanwhile, I am very excited to see what happens when Japan take on South Africa this Friday. It’s a huge test for the Cherry Blossoms as it’s their first chance to face a Tier 1 team this year.
And the Springboks have not held back with their team selection, with the only change to the starting XV from the 16-16 draw with New Zealand the return of captain Siya Kolisi.
The wounds of 2015 are still fresh.
Did Rob Kearney pass the ball this week?
Anyone who has watched a Leinster or Ireland match with me knows of my frustration with Rob Kearney’s refusal to pass to his teammates, so each week I will be asking the question: did Rob Kearney pass the ball?
This week’s answer: No, but again Rob wasn’t playing. Hopefully we’ll get a chance to see him not pass the ball against Wales on Saturday.
If you see a Rob Kearney pass the ball in the wild, please contact the relative authorities (me) immediately.
Some extra stuff
Dave Thomas has an interesting breakdown of how the World Rugby rankings are actually a pretty good indicator of how teams will perform at a World Cup (just don’t mention 2007).
With all the panic over Rory Best’s recent performances, Jonathan Fitzpatrick has had a look at the up-and-coming prospects at hooker in Ireland (I am particularly excited about Dylan Tierney-Martin at Connacht and Ronan Kelleher at Leinster).
If you’re interested in what Jean Kleyn offers as a tighthead lock, Tom Savage of Munster fansite Three Red Kings has an excellent breakdown available to his supporters on Patreon. If you’re a fan of Munster or Irish rugby, it’s well worth the €2 monthly fee to follow TRK.
Simon Thomas of Wales Online does a nice breakdown of the Welsh squad heading to Japan.
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