The final countdown
It’s hard to believe but we have finally reached the end of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Semi-final weekend provided us with one instant classic and one totally forgettable game to set up a replay of the 2007 final between England and South Africa.
Despite lifting the William Webb Ellis trophy twice, neither of the previous two finals involving South Africa have produced a single try, with the Springboks boasting an average score of just 15-9 in the deciders.
But that should all change on Saturday, with both teams capable of scoring from anywhere on the pitch.
The only change from the semi-finals for either starting XV is the reintroduction of ‘Boks winger Cheslin Kolbe for Sbu Nkosi and you have to think this one is England’s game to lose.
Score early, score often
There’s a concept in American football of the gamescript. Each team, having evaluated their opponent all week, comes into a game with their opening set of offensive plays — usually around 15 — already decided before the players even take the field.
This gives players clarity in what they are doing while also offering coaches the chance to see how the opposition react to certain things and the opportunity to exploit defensive weaknesses they spotted during their preparation.
Under Eddie Jones, England developed probably the best gamescript in rugby, using the opening minutes of the game to lay down a marker to their opponents and set the tone for the rest of the game.
Of their last 13 meetings with teams currently in the top ten of the world rankings, England have scored their first try in the opening three minutes of the game eight times. Eight times. That is an absolutely ridiculous rate of early scoring, especially at test level.
In the biggest games, England are consistently jumping out to an immediate advantage and they did it again on Saturday against New Zealand, with Manu Tuilagi touching down after just 96 seconds of play.
It’s all about to kick off
England’s kick off has been key to their ability to score early. Of the previously mentioned 13 most recent games against top-ten opposition, England have taken the kick off in seven of them, with the 21-13 defeat to Wales in the Six Nations the only game in which England didn’t score within three minutes of their own kick off.
While they did still manage early scores against France in the Six Nations and Wales in one of their World Cup warm up games after receiving the kick off, in general England like to take the kick off themselves.
In particular, England like to drop the ball around the five-metre tramline at the edge of the 22. This creates an awkward exit situation for a right-footed kicker, though Faf de Klerk’s left boot may make England reconsider this strategy in the final.
This is how they began the game against New Zealand and though Aaron Smith still manages to make an excellent box kick up the field, England are set up well with a lineout just inside their own half.
From here, Eddie Jones’ side execute their early gameplan perfectly.
First they smash it up the middle through Manu Tuilagi and then Tom Curry. Though these carries don’t really make any yardage, they establish the fact New Zealand must be ready to defend heavy ballcarriers in the middle of the field.
Crucially, England are able to recycle the ball quickly from these positions, giving them the opportunity to spread it through the backs on the next phase of play.
The New Zealand defence is narrow so Elliot Daly runs his line wide, allowing him to get outside three would-be defenders in one go and force a missed tackle from Richie Mo’unga.
As George Bridge cuts back inside to tackle him, Daly knows he can unleash Anthony Watson with an offload and he intelligently doesn’t stay down until he is fully tackled.
Suddenly England have frontfoot ball inside the New Zealand 22.
Now England can really start to impose themselves on the game.
Having pulled the New Zealand defence to one side, the All Blacks’ defensive line is populated mostly by forwards and is once again narrowly aligned.
Ford sees this and calls for Youngs to play it out to the backs so he can continue to stress the Kiwis’ defence.
It is clear from the speed and purpose with which the England players are doing everything that they have rehearsed this kind of situation before, right down to the support lines players are running without the ball.
In particular, keep an eye on Ben Youngs. The scrumhalf begins running to where he knows the ruck will be before Daly has even thrown the skip pass to Jamie George on the wing.
The movement of Youngs is key here as it gives England the chance to immediately attack off the back of the ruck.
The New Zealand defenders just don’t have time to catch their breath and they are still scrambling to align themselves correctly. Meanwhile, England know exactly what they are doing.
Courtney Lawes looks set to smash the ball up like England’s tight ballcarriers did back at halfway but instead he sends a beautiful no-look pass to Kyle Sinckler.
The tighthead prop then keeps the play alive with a neat offload to George Ford, who finds the onrushing Mako Vunipola.
Vunipola takes the ball to ground and it is once again recycled quickly, with Lawes making his second carry of the game.
Curry and Itoje quickly clear the ruck, allowing Tuilagi to snipe in over the line for the first score of the game.
With less than two minutes on the clock, England have already made New Zealand’s defence look very pedestrian with a simple, but accurate, attacking structure.
Just as Eddie Jones had scripted it, England moved the ball from one sideline to the other and back again before suddenly changing the direction of the attack to exploit a gap.
I spoke a little before about the concept of attacking the hinge of a defence as the defenders fold around to cover the outside and you can see it happen on Tuilagi’s try when Kieran Read and Brodie Retallick both overrun the defensive assignment.
Joe Moody doesn’t have enough time to get in position and Nepo Laulala is engaged in the ruck so one of Read or Retallick needs to stay put as a defensive pillar at the side of the ruck.
But England’s width forces them to panic and fold back around to the other side, leaving the space for Tuilagi to attack with a simple pick and go.
It’s worth watching that passage of play all in one go to see just how relentless England were.
Ref Watch: The final whistle
Jérôme Garcès has been named as the man in the middle for Saturday’s showpiece event.
Wayne Barnes has been the outstanding referee of the last four years and is unlucky that England’s involvement rules him out but based on this tournament alone, I’m not sure he’d be the top choice for me.
As far as Garcès goes, he’s not afraid of making big decisions, which is something I really value in a game of this magnitude.
Both sides have experience of him already at this World Cup as he took charge of South Africa’s opening weekend defeat to New Zealand and their semi-final win over Wales as well as England’s quarter-final win over Australia.
He’s not exactly popular with the ‘Boks, with the win over Wales just their second in 11 games with the Frenchman in the middle.
Combine that with the fact England have actually been remarkably disciplined so far at this World Cup and you can bet there will be some Springbok fans calling shenanigans before the day is out.
Some extra stuff
Eoin Toolan looks at the variety of play England’s double-playmaker axis offers in The42.
Tom Fordyce has a great piece for the BBC explaining the pressure on Siya Kolisi’s shoulders this weekend as South Africa’s first ever black captain leads them into a RWC final.
Charlie Morgan of The Telegraph has a good breakdown of how England’s defence shut down New Zealand.
Amid the speculation about who will replace Steve Hansen as All Blacks coach, the New Zealand Herald report that Joe Schmidt and Ronan O’Gara are being lined up as possible assistants in the new set up.
The amount of injury —including concussion — at the 2019 RWC is down compared to the 2015 edition, albeit both tournaments offer a fairly small sample size.
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